Gartner’s Hype Cycle and Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis

I’ve been working on a brand new comprehensive methodology in which to chart the evolution of a web distribution channel or platform’s life cycle, called The Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis. It’s still in its early stages of development, but I wanted to share some of my early hypothesis here in the hopes of sparking a dialogue.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle

I’ve heard about Gartner’s Hype Cycle before and it’s only recently that I’ve found value in this kind of trend analysis.

Gartner's Hype Cycle from August, 2008

Gartner’s Hype Cycle (above) is designed to chart the adoption cycle of a specific technology. For example, in the chart above “Corporate Blogging” appears in the Trough of Disillusionment and is about to enter the Slope of Enlightenment. It’s expected to enter the Plateau of Productivity (and I assume be adopted in the mainstream) in the next two to five years.

This kind of trend analysis is valuable, however, I believe that Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis can actually deliver a more actionable understanding of any particular web content distribution channel (like corporate blogging) that is relevant to online content marketing professionals.

Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis

Our Life Cycle Analysis is a complicated theory only recently put into practice, however, so far it has proven extremely valuable.

Let’s look at the concept first and a couple of examples.

Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis

Our hypothesis is founded on the simple principle that the adoption of any platform (blogging, microblogging, photo sharing or live video streaming) or content distribution channel (youtube.com, slideshare.com, flickr.com or twitter.com) can be tracked openly and analyzed to determine where in our life cycle it is.

The life cycle has six distinct phases:

1. Experiment - in this phase a new platform or channel debuts offering users a new way in which to communicate, share or create content. This phase is characterized by a small group of users constantly adding content (usually of low quality and high frequency.)
2. Adopt - the Adoption phase is denoted by a wider audience attempting to utilize the new communication medium usually attempting to advance the quality of the content distributed.
3. Gestate - the Gestation phase is marked by a small up swing in a core group of early adopters working to understand the value of the medium and providing relevant, frequent and high quality content to a wider audience. (This is where the ‘internet celebrities’ are usually discovered for the platform or channel.)
4. Escalate – The Escalation phase marks the rapid growth of the channel or platform. Users (usually worldwide) begin adding content and frequently contributing. The mass media starts getting involved and users arrive in large numbers attempting to replicate the success found in the Gestation phase of the Life Cycle. The top of the escalation phase spawns a series of copy cat channels or platforms each trying to differentiate their offering slightly.
5. Monetize - It’s at this point where mainstream users start wondering how to measure the ROI, or investors start to inquire about how they can monetize the new platform or channel. Growth slows while users try other services and the channel experiments with monetization models.
6. Consolidate - When the monetize model is played out and proves possible (or impossible), attrition rates (from a user and content creator standpoint) are at its highest. Those providing the most valuable content try to find others like them and build larger communities and audiences for their content.
7. Maintain - Finally, the channel or platform enters a maintain phase in the cycle. The platform/channel has been proven and monetized and the attrition rate basically equals the adoption rate.

Here are a couple of quick examples:

Tippingpoint Labs Life Cycle Analysis: Channel - Flickr.com

Here’s a look at where Twitter stands today in the Life Cycle:

Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis: Channel - Twitter.com

Now, it’s a complicated concept, and we’ve got lots of hypothesis on what marks the beginning of one phase and the end of another, but let’s look at how the Tippingpoint Life Cycle Analysis impacts our understanding of Gartner’s Hype Cycle.

Hype Cycle Under Tippingpoint Life Cycle

Now, taking the Tippingpoint Life Cycle Analysis and loosely overlaying it on Gartner’s Hype Cycle, it’s much easier to gain some insight into real insightful trend analysis.

Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis over Gartner's Hype Cycle

As you can see, our Life Cycle Analysis actually adds tremendous value to Gartner’s Hype Cycle. Now, one can actually define the relationships between a channel’s growth and the driving forces resulting in the Hype.

For example, at the height of the Escalation phase you’ll notice that Gartner’s Hype Cycle showcases a technology at the ‘Trough of Disillusionment.’ Now, you know why: with the highest number of users or content producers creating high volume, low quality, irrelevant content on the channel, it becomes full of noise. The ROI is unclear and content creators find themselves wondering – “where’s the value?”

I hope to expand on our Life Cycle Analysis and this theory in the coming weeks. Your feedback or insight is much appreciated.

About the author

Andrew Davis -

In 2002, Andrew founded Tippingpoint Labs with journalist James Cosco. Since then, he's spent countless hours exploring the online universe and building a methodological approach to developing digital strategies that drive revenue or reduce costs.

Andrew's always asking big questions and analyzing data to understand markets, online forces and even business models. Andrew's research has resulted in the creation of innovative online metrics including Online Brand Value and Category Brand Value, eye-opening graphical representations of website evolution through the New Media Life Cycle and even using online data to predict offline revenue.

When he's not surfing the web, Andrew's traveling the globe speaking to a wide-variety of audiences about everything from social media to the future of print. Andrew is a frequent contributor to the Tippingpoint Labs website and has been creating valuable content since the early 1990s for The Jim Henson Company, CNN, The Today Show and MTV.

He's contributed to a book of short stories, called The Way Things Were and produced and co-wrote Roadside Ambition a documentary film about one small town with two huge balls.

"In a world where content is consumed as rapidly as it's created, companies need to develop a sound strategy to creating valuable online experiences that can, and should, be leveraged enterprise-wide. There is a content solution to every business challenge."